Post-Election Thoughts from Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair

Closing Arguments from Kamala Harris & Tammy Baldwin

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Post-Election Thoughts from Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair

Nov. 10, 2024

Here are highlights from a message sent by Ben Wikler, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair, to Wisconsin Democrats after the Nov. 5 General Election.

On Election Day, I thought we were winning the presidential race.

We came up short.

Losing was a gut punch. Enormous peril lies ahead.

As we prepare for what’s next, we also have to find space for curiosity about what just happened.

We’re beginning to see the outlines: a red wave. A nationwide shift toward Trump of 6 percent. But in Wisconsin, we nearly defeated that wave.

The shift here was just one quarter the size: a 1.5% swing from 2020. Not because Trump was weaker here than elsewhere, but because we were stronger. Thanks to tens of thousands of heroes—our candidates, the campaign, party infrastructure, allies, and volunteers—we persuaded and turned out even more voters for Harris than we did for Biden in 2020. We lost Wisconsin by just 0.9%—the smallest margin of any state in America. 

2024 was a high turnout year, second only to 2020 nationwide. But in most states, turnout went down slightly. In Wisconsin, overall turnout went up—by 1.3%, the most in the country. 

All of your work had a critical impact. You helped Tammy Baldwin win re-election. You flipped four state Senate and ten state Assembly seats on our new fair maps, setting the stage for majorities in 2026. 

That reality doesn’t lessen the blow of knowing what Trump is poised to inflict on the country. But it fills me with profound gratitude for your work. To everyone involved in this fight, thank you.  

Here’s my first-pass analysis of what just happened, and a note of appreciation. 

Two Things Are Clear

In 2024, voters nationwide—across, from what we can tell, geography, gender, generation, race, and ethnicity—shifted towards Trump. This wasn’t any particular group’s “fault.” Don’t fall for that trap. 

We’re just at the beginning of figuring out what happened. Be wary of anyone who tells you that X, Y, or Z thing would have changed the outcome.

But two things are very clear from the big picture. 

The first key thing is that the post-COVID inflation era has marked a global wave against incumbent parties. In 2024, for the first year on record (with 120 years of data), every wealthy-country ruling party has lost ground, regardless of whether it was left or right of center. Across Belgium, France, Japan, Austria, Portugal, the US, and the UK, the average swing was 20 points.

Worldwide, political scientists are arguing, this is a reaction to high prices. Inflation leads voters to punish whoever’s in power, even if they didn’t have control over it. The fact that US voters swung less hard against Democrats may be due to the greater success in the US, relative to other countries, in bringing inflation down. 

This tracks with what we’ve heard consistently for the last two years—in polls, in exit polls, and on doors. Many voters have been furious about high prices. The question was whether we could win the presidential race despite that headwind, given everything else (and yes, there was so much else). Like other parties worldwide, we didn’t. 

The second thing that jumps out is that, in the states where Harris and Trump campaigned the hardest, Harris overperformed. And she overperformed in Wisconsin most of all. 

Harris’s campaign had a bigger effect than Trump’s. As Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, one of the nation’s most clear-eyed analysts, puts it: 

—Latest numbers: across the seven battleground states, the '20-'24 swing towards Trump was ~3.1 pts. Across the other 43 states (+DC), it was ~6.7 pts. 

—Bottom line: the Harris campaign swam impressively against some very strong underlying currents.

You can see the same thing in turnout numbers. 

. . .this is a tale of two elections—because while turnout dropped slightly in non-battleground states, it actually went up, very slightly, in the seven battlegrounds. 

And it rose most of all in Wisconsin: turnout here rose 1.3%, the highest in the nation. 

In other words, that feeling so many of us had—that energy on the ground was explosive, that the campaign was soaring, that we were finding new Harris voters all over the state—that was real.  

Harris earned more than 30,000 more raw votes than Biden. She earned more votes than Obama in 2012, and almost as many as Obama in 2008—when he won a 14-point landslide victory. She added votes in 46 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties—rural, urban, suburban, and small-town alike. 

Unpacking the Numbers

“Urban core” counties moved 8 percent towards Trump nationally—but Milwaukee only moved 1 percent.

Milwaukee County actually delivered more net votes (Dem votes minus Republican votes) for Harris than it did for Obama in 2008 or 2012. 

“Major suburbs” moved 5.7 percent towards Trump nationally—but in Wisconsin, they moved 0.1 percent to Harris. Her margin grew, slightly, in each of the WOW counties. 

“Medium metros”—counties with mid-sized cities—moved 4.9 percent towards Trump nationally, but in Wisconsin, just shifted 1 percent towards Trump. Dane County, the fastest-growing in the state, for the first time delivered the most net votes for Harris of any Wisconsin county.

And “Rural counties and small cities” nationally moved towards Trump by 4 percent. In Wisconsin, these 57 counties accounted for 36 percent of the overall vote, and 29 percent of the vote for Harris. But the Trumpward shift in rural Wisconsin counties—2 percent—was only half the national shift. And Harris racked up more raw votes than Biden in 35 of those counties, even though Trump added more. 

Gains in the Legislature

We can, should, and must do all we can to think through, what, in small ways and big, we could have done better. And there is much to learn, perhaps painful lessons, about what led to this outcome. 

But we can be rightly proud of what we achieved in Wisconsin. 

It all mattered.

It mattered because Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race. This was another classic Wisconsin photo finish: a 0.9 percent, 28,958-vote margin, overcoming an absolutely horrendous $100 million flood of attack ads. Baldwin ran a dynamite campaign. And all of our work to lift up Democrats up and down the ballot played a critical role in her race. You helped make that happen. 

It mattered because, in the state legislature, Democrats flipped all four of our targeted state Senate seats, shattering the GOP’s supermajority and putting Democrats on track for a majority in 2026. Two seats to go. 

Meanwhile, Dems picked up 10 Assembly districts—ending the massive Republican margin created by gerrymandered maps. If we flip five more seats, we’ll win an Assembly majority in 2026 as well. 

And it mattered because of the way we won—by staying true to our values, by organizing, by building community and working together and taking nobody for granted and counting nobody out. 

Some Thanks

So: some thanks are in order. 

First, to our candidates. . . Second, thank you to the campaign and party staff that worked themselves to the bone on this election. None of this would have been possible without you. . . Roughly 100,000 volunteers this year took part in the fight in Wisconsin. Let’s thank them all. . .

Every one of the 100,000 people who volunteered, including tens of thousands who knocked on doors and made phone calls in Wisconsin this year, helped Tammy Baldwin win Wisconsin, helped make huge gains downballot, and helped ensure that Harris came closer to winning here than any other battleground state. 

Our Values Will Endure

We didn’t win all that we wanted to win. But the values that lead us to do this work will endure. We will keep striving to learn and improve. And together, in times to come, we will bend the moral arc of the universe towards justice. 

Kamala Harris

Ben Wikler

Closing Arguments

Source: WisDems Message Monday

Oct. 29, 2024

From Kamala Harris

TOP MESSAGE: This election will be a choice between two very different visions for the future: Vice President Harris and Democrats will be leaders for all Americans and are charting a New Way Forward where everyone has the opportunity to get ahead. Donald Trump is unstable, unhinged, and seeking unchecked power. A second Trump term is a risk we can’t afford – look no further than his extreme Project 2025 agenda that gives him unprecedented, unchecked power to roll back Americans’ rights and freedoms, hurt the middle class, and threaten our democracy.

• Vice President Kamala Harris is charting a
  new way forward. As President, Kamala
  Harris along with Democrats will create
  an Opportunity Economy where everyone
  with hard work and ambition has a chance
  to compete and a chance to succeed—
  from buying a home to starting a business
  and building wealth.
  

• Her number one economic priority is to bring
  down costs, from groceries to housing
  and prescription drugs, so that everyone
  has the opportunity to not just get by,
  but get ahead:
  

  • She’ll cut taxes for more than 100 million Americans and help small businesses and entrepreneurs grow and thrive.
    

  • She’ll pass the first ever federal ban on corporate price gouging on food and groceries.
    

  • She'll stop corporations and land speculators from buying up homes and raising the rent. She’ll make housing more affordable by building 3 million new homes through a new home builder tax credit, and help more Americans experience the pride of homeownership by giving $25K in down payment assistance.
    

  • She’ll strengthen Medicare to cover at-home care for seniors, giving the ‘sandwich’ generation of Americans caring for kids and aging parents more breathing room.

     

• She trusts women and believes that the government shouldn’t come between a woman and her doctor. She will proudly sign a law to restore reproductive freedom.
  

• After decades in law enforcement, she knows the importance of protecting the safety and security of Americans: She will sign the bipartisan bill to secure the border and she will fight for the freedom to live safe from gun violence.
  

• But while Kamala Harris is paving a new way forward, Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans are trying to drag us backwards.
  

• Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans will threaten the stability and security of hardworking families. Trump doesn’t fight for the middle class; he only looks out for himself.
  

• A second Trump term is too big of a risk – just look at his extreme, dangerous Project 2025 agenda that gives him unprecedented, unchecked power to do whatever he wants.
  

• This time, there will be no guardrails – he promises to purge the government of anyone not sufficiently loyal and replace them with his MAGA loyalists. With virtually unlimited immunity from the Supreme Court, he is even willing to terminate the Constitution to give himself more power.
  

• He has a plan: His Project 2025 Agenda will fundamentally harm and alter the nation by:
  

  • Increasing costs for families by $4,000 a year by slapping a Trump “sales tax” on goods that families rely on, like gas, food, clothing, and medicine.
    

  • Eliminating the independence of the Department of Justice to give Trump virtually total control.
    

  • Cutting Social Security and Medicare and ending the Affordable Care Act.
    

  • Abolishing the Department of Education and eliminating federal funding for K-12 education.
    

  • Giving tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations while making working families foot the bill.

• Trump said women who have abortions should be punished, and brags about overturning Roe v. Wade. A second Trump term will go even further. His Project 2025 will enact a national abortion ban, restrict access to contraception and threaten IVF, and allow the government to monitor pregnancies.
  

• The stakes have never been higher, but the contrast between Donald Trump and Vice President Harris has never been clearer. We need to go all-in to elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz next week.

From Tammy Baldwin

TOP MESSAGE: Wisconsinites deserve a senator who understands them, likes them, and knows how to work with Republicans and Democrats to make their lives better. That is Tammy Baldwin, a champion for lower health care costs, a strong Made in Wisconsin economy, protecting Social Security, and restoring reproductive freedoms. And they cannot afford California bank owner Eric Hovde who has proven he does not respect or even like the people of Wisconsin and is running on a self-serving agenda to put the wealthy first and working people last while passing a national abortion ban.

• Reproductive Freedoms: Tammy Baldwin is the champion in the US Senate for restoring reproductive freedoms. Eric Hovde would vote for a national abortion ban. (Watch here)
  

  • Tammy is the champion in the US Senate for restoring women’s fundamental rights and freedoms. Her Women’s Health Protection Act would restore access to abortion for Wisconsin women so no politician or court can take away our freedoms again.
    

  • While Eric Hovde and Republicans think the government should choose what women can do with their bodies, Tammy thinks women should decide. Hovde would be another vote for a national abortion ban. He has said he’s “totally opposed to abortion.” He supported the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
    

• Wisconsin Economy: Tammy Baldwin is the Buy America champion in the US Senate, bringing thousands of new jobs to Wisconsin. Eric Hovde has made millions investing in companies that ship jobs overseas.
  

  • There are thousands of new manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin because of the Buy America rules Tammy Baldwin has pushed through in bill after bill, working with both the Trump Administration and the Biden Administration to get it done.
    

    • In Neenah, Wisconsin workers are making manhole covers used around the country, supporting hundreds of jobs.
      

    • In Clinton Wisconsin workers are making parts for submarines and spaceships, letting Americans explore the sky and the sea.
      

  • But Eric Hovde opposes these rules that support Wisconsin jobs. And he made millions investing in companies that shipped American jobs overseas.
    

• Hard Earned Benefits: Tammy Baldwin will protect Social Security and Medicare. Eric Hovde’s “Hovde Plan” will slash these programs, costing families thousands, while cutting taxes for the rich.
  

• Tammy Baldwin fights to protect our Social Security and Medicare, pushing the rich to pay their fair share so the next generation receives the benefits they’ve earned. But Eric Hovde’s ‘Hovde Plan’ would slash Social Security by $500 per month, $6,000 per year. It would cut Medicare and nursing home care.
  

  1. Why does Eric Hovde want to cut these programs? To pay for a $4 trillion tax break for the wealthiest like himself and the largest corporations in the country.

• Health Care: Tammy Baldwin will protect the Affordable Care Act and lower health care costs. Eric Hovde will repeal the law and put Big Pharma back in charge.
  

  • There are millions of young people who have stayed on their parents’ health insurance until they were twenty-six because of the provision in the Affordable Care Act Tammy Baldwin wrote. But Eric Hovde called that provision “stupid” and would repeal the Affordable Care Act in its entirety, throwing millions off their health insurance.
    

  • While Tammy Baldwin has spent her career fighting against the big pharmaceutical companies and the health care giants to lower costs for working families, Eric Hovde wanted the big pharmaceutical companies to keep their sweetheart deal that made it illegal for Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices.

• Wisconsin roots: While Tammy Baldwin works for Wisconsin and only Wisconsin, Eric Hovde is an out-of-state, out-of-touch California bank owner who has repeatedly insulted the people of our state.
  

  • Tammy Baldwin shows up. From Superior to Milwaukee, Eau Claire to Green Bay, and everywhere in between, Tammy Baldwin has held more than 250 events this year. She listens to the working people of our state, fights to make their lives better, and works with both parties to get the job done. This month Tammy is doing over 90 events across the state, visiting every media market at least twice.
    

  • And Tammy has support from a broad coalition of Wisconsinites. Her endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation makes her the first statewide Democrat in more than twenty years to receive the support from 47,000 Wisconsin farms.
    

  • Eric Hovde is the owner of a $3.2 billion California bank. He’s been named one of Orange County’s Most Influential People not once, not twice, but three times. And he’s been caught skipping out on Wisconsin campaign events to lounge on the private beach at his $7 million Laguna Beach home.
    

  • And Hovde insults Wisconsinites every time he opens his mouth. He has disparaged just about every group of Wisconsinites, including single parents, women, nursing home residents, people struggling with their weight, farmers, young people, and more.

• Eric Hovde has Mitch McConnell, the mega millionaires, and the special interests on his side. They are poised to spend more than $100 million in this race and are running a dark, personal campaign attacking Tammy Baldwin in the closing days of this campaign.
  

• But while Hovde has the millionaires, Tammy Baldwin has the people on her side who will carry her to victory. She is closing the campaign on her FORWARD bus tour, showing up in red, purple and blue, rural, suburban and urban communities across the state.

Tammy Baldwin